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Financial Markets

Deep multi-layer market intelligence → paper positions → evaluation → bounded improvement — v1.6.1-rc2.1
Activity Feed
Forecast Archive
Data Health
Fundamental analysis is ready.
MARKET FEED PARTIALLY LIVE
BTC/ETH/SOL live market data is connected. Bitunix is the primary crypto futures feed; Deribit supplies an independent BTC/ETH index reference, while SOL uses Bitunix/CMC references. CoinMarketCap is a keyless aggregate cross-check/fallback. Traditional targets use a separate, explicitly labeled feed/proxy policy. The 4H horizon is the forecast evaluation horizon, not the price refresh interval.FA
Macro Regime FASTAGFLATION_SLOWDOWNHMM state probability: 100.0%
رکود تورمی/کاهش رشد؛ رشد اقتصادی ضعیف و فشار تورمی همزمان، محیط تصمیم‌گیری را دشوار می‌کند.
Event Risk FAGREENTrade Gate: NORMAL
Data Quality FABLOCKEDAnalysis: BLOCKED_MACRO_INGESTION
Latest Cycletriggered2026-09-15T10:54:44.276075+00:00
Market Watch FAPARTIAL · 4/7 ASSETSMarket poll ~10s · Watch scan ~60s
Next Full Cycle2026-09-15T14:18:08.211758+00:00Scheduled every 4 hours

Traditional Feed / Explicit Proxies FA

Twelve Data is polled under a free-tier quota guard. “LIVE-AT-QUERY” means current at the poll time, not a continuous exchange stream.

EURUSD

ACTIVE
EUR/USD EXACT FOREX CONTEXT
Symbol EUR/USD · Policy EXACT_CONTEXT · Price 1.1535

GOLD

ACTIVE
XAU/USD EXACT SPOT
Symbol XAU/USD · Policy EXACT_TARGET_IF_ENTITLED · Price 4281.40795

NQ_PROXY

ACTIVE
QQQ LIVE-AT-QUERY PROXY — NOT NQ FUTURES
Symbol QQQ · Policy PROXY_ONLY · Price 709.17999

YM_PROXY

ACTIVE
DIA LIVE-AT-QUERY PROXY — NOT YM FUTURES
Symbol DIA · Policy PROXY_ONLY · Price 524.48999
Truth policy: QQQ/DIA = context proxy only; XAU/USD = exact GOLD only when entitlement succeeds; no hidden fallback and no proxy is written as a futures target price.

Asset Fundamental Forecasts FA

Hard bias threshold ±15; near-threshold cases are shown as Lean Bullish / Lean Bearish.
GOLD — Gold
XAU/USD / GC context
Fundamental layer only
NEUTRAL
Δ vs prior cycle: +0.0
4H Score FA-2.1
Confidence FA25.0 / 100
P(up) FA48.1%
Confidence capped at 25 because the current Fundamental cycle is blocked by data-quality/ingestion gates; this is not a normal Neutral forecast.
4HNEUTRALP(up) 48.1% · Conf 25.0
LIVE MARKET
4281.41
Δ since cycle +0.000%
OPEN_SESSION
TWELVEDATA_XAUUSD · LIVE_AT_QUERY_REFRESH_10M
Mark—
Index Ref—
24H—
Funding—
CMC Ref—
Spread—
Depth Imb.—
Ref Diff.—
Last tick: —
Index: — · CMC is cross-check/fallback, not settlement index.
No hard directional Fundamental signal. Current factors remain inside the neutral zone.
Key Drivers
DriverFactor ScoreWeightContribution
Real Yield
10Y real-rate pressure; rising real yields are usually a headwind for Gold and duration assets.
1.061-1.6-1.698
CFTC Positioning
Normalized speculative positioning from CFTC COT data.
1.5010.8+1.201
Inflation Momentum
Change in the standardized inflation composite; this is a factor score, not raw CPI.
1.3180.5+0.659
Financial Stress
Composite of financial conditions, credit spreads, claims, VIX and policy uncertainty.
-0.5281.0-0.528
Fed Tightness
Composite of policy rate, 2Y yield and real yield; higher means tighter financial conditions.
0.525-0.8-0.420
USD / DXY Proxy
Broad USD trend proxy; a stronger USD often pressures Gold and risk assets.
-0.317-1.1+0.348
BTC — Bitcoin
BTC-USD
Fundamental layer only
NEUTRAL
Δ vs prior cycle: +0.0
4H Score FA-5.1
Confidence FA25.0 / 100
P(up) FA45.4%
Confidence capped at 25 because the current Fundamental cycle is blocked by data-quality/ingestion gates; this is not a normal Neutral forecast.
4HNEUTRALP(up) 45.4% · Conf 25.0
LIVE MARKET
77087.0
Δ since cycle +0.144%
OPEN_24_7
BITUNIX · HEALTHY
Mark77088.7
Index Ref77072.29
24H-0.85%
Funding0.731%
CMC Ref77058.24
Spread0.01 bps
Depth Imb.3.7%
Ref Diff.0.028%
Last tick: —
Index: DERIBIT · CMC is cross-check/fallback, not settlement index.
No hard directional Fundamental signal. Current factors remain inside the neutral zone.
Key Drivers
DriverFactor ScoreWeightContribution
Real Yield
10Y real-rate pressure; rising real yields are usually a headwind for Gold and duration assets.
1.061-1.0-1.061
Liquidity
Composite of Fed balance sheet and money-supply trends.
0.5761.3+0.749
Fed Tightness
Composite of policy rate, 2Y yield and real yield; higher means tighter financial conditions.
0.525-1.0-0.525
Financial Stress
Composite of financial conditions, credit spreads, claims, VIX and policy uncertainty.
-0.528-0.8+0.422
Crypto Network Activity
Standardized BTC/ETH network-activity trend from Coin Metrics Community data. SOL is not assigned a fabricated network score until a verified SOL source is connected.
0.1340.8+0.107
Growth
Composite of GDP, industrial production, retail sales, payrolls and claims.
-0.1860.4-0.074
ETH — Ethereum
ETH-USD
Fundamental layer only
NEUTRAL
Tendency: Bearish — تمایل نزولی
Δ vs prior cycle: +0.0
4H Score FA-12.3
Confidence FA25.0 / 100
P(up) FA39.3%
Confidence capped at 25 because the current Fundamental cycle is blocked by data-quality/ingestion gates; this is not a normal Neutral forecast.
4HNEUTRAL
Tendency: Bearish — تمایل نزولی
P(up) 39.3% · Conf 25.0
LIVE MARKET
2483.45
Δ since cycle +0.081%
OPEN_24_7
BITUNIX · HEALTHY
Mark2483.45
Index Ref2483.73
24H-1.01%
Funding-0.8656%
CMC Ref2483.96
Spread0.04 bps
Depth Imb.-34.0%
Ref Diff.0.016%
Last tick: —
Index: DERIBIT · CMC is cross-check/fallback, not settlement index.
No hard signal yet; factors lean bearish.
Key Drivers
DriverFactor ScoreWeightContribution
Real Yield
10Y real-rate pressure; rising real yields are usually a headwind for Gold and duration assets.
1.061-0.9-0.955
Crypto Network Activity
Standardized BTC/ETH network-activity trend from Coin Metrics Community data. SOL is not assigned a fabricated network score until a verified SOL source is connected.
-0.8960.9-0.806
Liquidity
Composite of Fed balance sheet and money-supply trends.
0.5761.2+0.691
Fed Tightness
Composite of policy rate, 2Y yield and real yield; higher means tighter financial conditions.
0.525-1.0-0.525
Financial Stress
Composite of financial conditions, credit spreads, claims, VIX and policy uncertainty.
-0.528-0.9+0.475
Growth
Composite of GDP, industrial production, retail sales, payrolls and claims.
-0.1860.4-0.074
SOL — Solana
SOL-USD / SOLUSDT
Fundamental layer only
NEUTRAL
Δ vs prior cycle: +0.0
4H Score FA-5.1
Confidence FA25.0 / 100
P(up) FA45.5%
Confidence capped at 25 because the current Fundamental cycle is blocked by data-quality/ingestion gates; this is not a normal Neutral forecast.
4HNEUTRALP(up) 45.5% · Conf 25.0
LIVE MARKET
100.83
Δ since cycle -0.059%
OPEN_24_7
BITUNIX · HEALTHY
Mark100.84
Index Ref—
24H-0.71%
Funding0.7419%
CMC Ref100.89
Spread0.99 bps
Depth Imb.0.9%
Ref Diff.0.058%
Last tick: —
Index: — · CMC is cross-check/fallback, not settlement index.
No hard directional Fundamental signal. Current factors remain inside the neutral zone.
Key Drivers
DriverFactor ScoreWeightContribution
Real Yield
10Y real-rate pressure; rising real yields are usually a headwind for Gold and duration assets.
1.061-0.9-0.955
Liquidity
Composite of Fed balance sheet and money-supply trends.
0.5761.2+0.691
Financial Stress
Composite of financial conditions, credit spreads, claims, VIX and policy uncertainty.
-0.528-1.0+0.528
Fed Tightness
Composite of policy rate, 2Y yield and real yield; higher means tighter financial conditions.
0.525-1.0-0.525
Growth
Composite of GDP, industrial production, retail sales, payrolls and claims.
-0.1860.4-0.074
NQ — Nasdaq-100
NQ — E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures
Fundamental layer only
NEUTRAL
Tendency: Bearish — تمایل نزولی
Δ vs prior cycle: +0.0
4H Score FA-15.5
Confidence FA25.0 / 100
P(up) FA36.6%
Confidence capped at 25 because the current Fundamental cycle is blocked by data-quality/ingestion gates; this is not a normal Neutral forecast.
4HNEUTRAL
Tendency: Bearish — تمایل نزولی
P(up) 36.6% · Conf 25.0
MARKET PRICE
—
OPEN_SESSION
Session may be open, but the trusted traditional-market provider is not connected yet.
Next standard transition: —
No hard signal yet; factors lean bearish.
Key Drivers
DriverFactor ScoreWeightContribution
Real Yield
10Y real-rate pressure; rising real yields are usually a headwind for Gold and duration assets.
1.061-1.5-1.591
Financial Stress
Composite of financial conditions, credit spreads, claims, VIX and policy uncertainty.
-0.528-1.3+0.686
US 2Y Yield
Standardized short-rate / policy-expectation pressure.
0.575-1.1-0.633
Fed Tightness
Composite of policy rate, 2Y yield and real yield; higher means tighter financial conditions.
0.525-1.2-0.630
Liquidity
Composite of Fed balance sheet and money-supply trends.
0.5760.9+0.518
Growth
Composite of GDP, industrial production, retail sales, payrolls and claims.
-0.1860.8-0.149
ES — S&P 500
ES — E-mini S&P 500 Futures
Fundamental layer only
NEUTRAL
Δ vs prior cycle: +0.0
4H Score FA-7.4
Confidence FA25.0 / 100
P(up) FA43.5%
Confidence capped at 25 because the current Fundamental cycle is blocked by data-quality/ingestion gates; this is not a normal Neutral forecast.
4HNEUTRALP(up) 43.5% · Conf 25.0
MARKET PRICE
—
OPEN_SESSION
Session may be open, but the trusted traditional-market provider is not connected yet.
Next standard transition: —
No hard directional Fundamental signal. Current factors remain inside the neutral zone.
Key Drivers
DriverFactor ScoreWeightContribution
Real Yield
10Y real-rate pressure; rising real yields are usually a headwind for Gold and duration assets.
1.061-0.8-0.849
Financial Stress
Composite of financial conditions, credit spreads, claims, VIX and policy uncertainty.
-0.528-1.4+0.739
Fed Tightness
Composite of policy rate, 2Y yield and real yield; higher means tighter financial conditions.
0.525-0.9-0.473
Liquidity
Composite of Fed balance sheet and money-supply trends.
0.5760.8+0.461
US 2Y Yield
Standardized short-rate / policy-expectation pressure.
0.575-0.6-0.345
Growth
Composite of GDP, industrial production, retail sales, payrolls and claims.
-0.1861.0-0.186
YM — Dow Jones
YM — E-mini Dow Futures
Fundamental layer only
NEUTRAL
Δ vs prior cycle: +0.0
4H Score FA-4.1
Confidence FA25.0 / 100
P(up) FA46.3%
Confidence capped at 25 because the current Fundamental cycle is blocked by data-quality/ingestion gates; this is not a normal Neutral forecast.
4HNEUTRALP(up) 46.3% · Conf 25.0
MARKET PRICE
—
OPEN_SESSION
Session may be open, but the trusted traditional-market provider is not connected yet.
Next standard transition: —
No hard directional Fundamental signal. Current factors remain inside the neutral zone.
Key Drivers
DriverFactor ScoreWeightContribution
Financial Stress
Composite of financial conditions, credit spreads, claims, VIX and policy uncertainty.
-0.528-1.2+0.633
Real Yield
10Y real-rate pressure; rising real yields are usually a headwind for Gold and duration assets.
1.061-0.5-0.530
Fed Tightness
Composite of policy rate, 2Y yield and real yield; higher means tighter financial conditions.
0.525-0.7-0.368
Industrial Growth
Standardized industrial-production trend.
0.2511.0+0.251
Growth
Composite of GDP, industrial production, retail sales, payrolls and claims.
-0.1861.2-0.223

Last 4 Fundamental Cycles FA

Chronology: oldest on the left → newest on the right. Realized outcome appears only when authentic issue/expiry prices exist.
triggeredRisk GREEN
—
Status: BLOCKED_MACRO_INGESTION · Gate: NORMAL
GOLD
NEUTRAL
-2.1
BTC
NEUTRAL
-5.1
ETH
NEUTRAL
-12.3
SOL
NEUTRAL
-5.1
NQ
NEUTRAL
-15.5
ES
NEUTRAL
-7.4
YM
NEUTRAL
-4.1
triggeredRisk GREEN
—
Status: BLOCKED_MACRO_INGESTION · Gate: NORMAL
GOLD
NEUTRAL
-2.1
BTC
NEUTRAL
-5.1
ETH
NEUTRAL
-12.3
SOL
NEUTRAL
-5.1
NQ
NEUTRAL
-15.5
ES
NEUTRAL
-7.4
YM
NEUTRAL
-4.1
triggeredRisk GREEN
—
Status: BLOCKED_MACRO_INGESTION · Gate: NORMAL
GOLD
NEUTRAL
-2.1
BTC
NEUTRAL
-5.1
ETH
NEUTRAL
-12.3
SOL
NEUTRAL
-5.1
NQ
NEUTRAL
-15.5
ES
NEUTRAL
-7.4
YM
NEUTRAL
-4.1
triggeredRisk GREEN
—
Status: BLOCKED_MACRO_INGESTION · Gate: NORMAL
GOLD
NEUTRAL
-2.1
BTC
NEUTRAL
-5.1
ETH
NEUTRAL
-12.3
SOL
NEUTRAL
-5.1
NQ
NEUTRAL
-15.5
ES
NEUTRAL
-7.4
YM
NEUTRAL
-4.1

Continuous Watch

Monitoring continues on the VPS even when your browser is closed.
SchedulerACTIVE
Last Watch—
News/Event WatchACTIVE
Price WatchPARTIAL
Analyst Shadow Poll2026-09-15T11:15:10.120820+00:00
Last Scheduler Actionidle

Triggered Re-analysis Archive

Every early re-analysis keeps its reason and cycle ID.
ORDER_FLOW_SHIFT ORANGE
—
BTC Order Flow shadow shifted (+7.3 → -43.1) | ETH Order Flow shadow shifted (-9.4 → +27.8) | SOL Order Flow shadow shifted (+11.0 → -28.9)
REANALYZED · fund-20260915T105340Z-3f7fd1
ORDER_FLOW_SHIFT ORANGE
—
ETH Order Flow shadow shifted (+19.2 → -25.6) | SOL Order Flow shadow shifted (-11.0 → +24.9)
REANALYZED · fund-20260915T103555Z-e71c76
ORDER_FLOW_SHIFT ORANGE
—
BTC Order Flow shadow shifted (-26.7 → +11.6)
REANALYZED · fund-20260915T101657Z-a7c84b
ORDER_FLOW_SHIFT ORANGE
—
ETH Order Flow shadow shifted (-30.7 → +9.2)
REANALYZED · fund-20260915T100022Z-aff6d9
ORDER_FLOW_SHIFT ORANGE
—
ETH Order Flow shadow shifted (+11.7 → -27.6)
REANALYZED · fund-20260915T094457Z-15ea3d
ORDER_FLOW_SHIFT ORANGE
—
BTC Order Flow shadow shifted (-7.8 → -43.1) | ETH Order Flow shadow shifted (-23.3 → +13.9) | SOL Order Flow shadow shifted (+21.5 → -21.9)
REANALYZED · fund-20260915T092714Z-a011fa
ORDER_FLOW_SHIFT ORANGE
—
BTC Order Flow shadow shifted (-19.3 → +30.0)
REANALYZED · fund-20260915T091054Z-e50d06
ORDER_FLOW_SHIFT ORANGE
—
ETH Order Flow shadow shifted (-20.6 → +16.8)
REANALYZED · fund-20260915T085413Z-41f3e1
ORDER_FLOW_SHIFT ORANGE
—
BTC Order Flow shadow shifted (-14.9 → +24.6)
REANALYZED · fund-20260915T083803Z-c73de4
ORDER_FLOW_SHIFT ORANGE
—
BTC Order Flow shadow shifted (+0.7 → +40.3)
REANALYZED · fund-20260915T082110Z-5d21b0
ORDER_FLOW_SHIFT ORANGE
—
BTC Order Flow shadow shifted (-26.9 → +36.3) | ETH Order Flow shadow shifted (-13.6 → +32.9)
REANALYZED · fund-20260915T080536Z-a71c73
ORDER_FLOW_SHIFT ORANGE
—
ETH Order Flow shadow shifted (-43.3 → +25.0)
REANALYZED · fund-20260915T074404Z-307fdf

Live Engine Activity FA

Heartbeat of cycles, watch events and source health.
—SOURCEMARKET: PARTIAL — BTC/ETH/SOL live; traditional target feeds are separate and explicitly labeled.
—WATCHContinuous Watch scanned; price=PARTIAL.
—SOURCEGDELT: ERROR — 429 Client Error: Too Many Requests for url: https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/v2/doc/doc?query=%28%22Federal+Reserve%22+OR+inflation+OR+CPI+OR+jobs+OR+recession+OR+war+OR+sanctions+OR+bitcoin+OR+ethereum+OR+gold+OR+oil%29&mode=ArtList&forma
—SOURCEANALYST_X: PARTIAL — X_USER_LOOKUP_CREDITS_DEPLETED_HTTP_402
—SOURCEBLS_CALENDAR: ERROR — 403 Client Error: Forbidden for url: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/bls.ics
—CYCLEtriggered completed — BLOCKED_MACRO_INGESTION / OK.
—ORDER_FLOW_SHIFTBTC Order Flow shadow shifted (+7.3 → -43.1) | ETH Order Flow shadow shifted (-9.4 → +27.8) | SOL Order Flow shadow shifted (+11.0 → -28.9) — REANALYZED
—ORDER_FLOW_SHIFTETH Order Flow shadow shifted (+19.2 → -25.6) | SOL Order Flow shadow shifted (-11.0 → +24.9) — REANALYZED
—ORDER_FLOW_SHIFTBTC Order Flow shadow shifted (-26.7 → +11.6) — REANALYZED
—ORDER_FLOW_SHIFTETH Order Flow shadow shifted (-30.7 → +9.2) — REANALYZED
—ORDER_FLOW_SHIFTETH Order Flow shadow shifted (+11.7 → -27.6) — REANALYZED
—ORDER_FLOW_SHIFTBTC Order Flow shadow shifted (-7.8 → -43.1) | ETH Order Flow shadow shifted (-23.3 → +13.9) | SOL Order Flow shadow shifted (+21.5 → -21.9) — REANALYZED
—ORDER_FLOW_SHIFTBTC Order Flow shadow shifted (-19.3 → +30.0) — REANALYZED
—ORDER_FLOW_SHIFTETH Order Flow shadow shifted (-20.6 → +16.8) — REANALYZED

Forecast Archive & Deviation FA

Immutable 4H/12H/24H research history. Forecasts are stored now; evaluation requires market prices.
IssuedExpiresAssetHorizonForecastScoreConfCycleStatusActual / Deviation
——YM24HNEUTRAL-4.745.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——YM12HNEUTRAL-4.545.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——YM4HNEUTRAL-4.145.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——ES24HNEUTRAL-8.345.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——ES12HNEUTRAL-8.045.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——ES4HNEUTRAL-7.445.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——NQ24HBEARISH-17.545.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——NQ12HBEARISH-16.945.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——NQ4HBEARISH-15.545.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——ETH24HNEUTRAL-13.945.0triggeredEVALUATED1.331% · Wrong
——ETH12HNEUTRAL-13.345.0triggeredEVALUATED0.153% · Correct
——ETH4HNEUTRAL-12.345.0triggeredEVALUATED0.378% · Wrong
——BTC24HNEUTRAL-5.845.0triggeredEVALUATED0.688% · Wrong
——BTC12HNEUTRAL-5.645.0triggeredEVALUATED0.019% · Correct
——BTC4HNEUTRAL-5.145.0triggeredEVALUATED0.282% · Wrong
——GOLD24HNEUTRAL-2.445.0triggeredHISTORICAL START PRICE MISSING—
——GOLD12HNEUTRAL-2.345.0triggeredHISTORICAL START PRICE MISSING—
——GOLD4HNEUTRAL-2.145.0triggeredHISTORICAL START PRICE MISSING—
——YM24HNEUTRAL-4.745.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——YM12HNEUTRAL-4.545.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——YM4HNEUTRAL-4.145.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——ES24HNEUTRAL-8.345.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——ES12HNEUTRAL-8.045.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——ES4HNEUTRAL-7.445.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——NQ24HBEARISH-17.545.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——NQ12HBEARISH-16.945.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——NQ4HBEARISH-15.545.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——ETH24HNEUTRAL-13.945.0triggeredEVALUATED0.982% · Wrong
——ETH12HNEUTRAL-13.345.0triggeredEVALUATED-0.217% · Wrong
——ETH4HNEUTRAL-12.345.0triggeredEVALUATED-0.055% · Correct
——BTC24HNEUTRAL-5.845.0triggeredEVALUATED0.51% · Wrong
——BTC12HNEUTRAL-5.645.0triggeredEVALUATED-0.158% · Correct
——BTC4HNEUTRAL-5.145.0triggeredEVALUATED0.113% · Correct
——GOLD24HNEUTRAL-2.445.0triggeredHISTORICAL START PRICE MISSING—
——GOLD12HNEUTRAL-2.345.0triggeredHISTORICAL START PRICE MISSING—
——GOLD4HNEUTRAL-2.145.0triggeredHISTORICAL START PRICE MISSING—
——YM24HNEUTRAL-4.760.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——YM12HNEUTRAL-4.560.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——YM4HNEUTRAL-4.160.0triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——ES24HNEUTRAL-8.361.7triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——ES12HNEUTRAL-8.061.7triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——ES4HNEUTRAL-7.461.7triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——NQ24HBEARISH-17.565.7triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——NQ12HBEARISH-16.965.7triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——NQ4HBEARISH-15.565.7triggeredBLOCKED — NO FEED—
——ETH24HNEUTRAL-13.964.1triggeredEVALUATED0.407% · Wrong
——ETH12HNEUTRAL-13.364.1triggeredEVALUATED-0.046% · Correct
——ETH4HNEUTRAL-12.364.1triggeredEVALUATED0.002% · Correct
——BTC24HNEUTRAL-5.860.5triggeredEVALUATED0.431% · Wrong
——BTC12HNEUTRAL-5.660.5triggeredEVALUATED0.024% · Correct
——BTC4HNEUTRAL-5.160.5triggeredEVALUATED0.268% · Wrong
——GOLD24HNEUTRAL-2.459.0triggeredHISTORICAL START PRICE MISSING—
——GOLD12HNEUTRAL-2.359.0triggeredHISTORICAL START PRICE MISSING—
——GOLD4HNEUTRAL-2.159.0triggeredHISTORICAL START PRICE MISSING—

Performance

Evaluated30
Direction Accuracy26.7%
Mean Brier0.3202

Upcoming Macro Events FA

EventTimeImportanceSource
Core Retail Sales m/m—3Forex Factory weekly JSON
Retail Sales m/m—3Forex Factory weekly JSON
FOMC Policy Decision—4Federal Reserve/BLS official calendar
Federal Funds Rate—4Forex Factory weekly JSON
FOMC Economic Projections—4Forex Factory weekly JSON
FOMC Statement—4Forex Factory weekly JSON
FOMC Press Conference—4Forex Factory weekly JSON
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index—3Forex Factory weekly JSON

Data Source Health FA

Friendly operational status: last success, last attempt, next scheduled check/retry and the reason for any block.
FEDHEALTHY
Last checked: —
Last successful data: —
Next check/retry: —
Countdown—
Latency: 102.7 ms
GDELTRATE LIMITED
Last checked: —
Last successful data: —
Next check/retry: —
Countdown—
Latency: 0.0 ms
Reason: 429 Client Error: Too Many Requests for url: https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/v2/doc/doc?query=%28%22Federal+Reserve%22+OR+inflation+OR+CPI+OR+jobs+OR+recession+OR+war+OR+sanctions+OR+bitcoin+OR+ethereum+OR+gold+OR+oil%29&mode=ArtList&forma
FOREXFACTORYHEALTHY
Last checked: —
Last successful data: —
Next check/retry: —
Countdown—
Latency: 54.6 ms
Reason: weekly JSON events=104
BITUNIXHEALTHY
Last checked: —
Last successful data: —
Next check/retry: —
Countdown—
Latency: 286.5 ms
Reason: public market data
DERIBITHEALTHY
Last checked: —
Last successful data: —
Next check/retry: —
Countdown—
Latency: 0.0 ms
Reason: BTC/ETH public settlement/index reference; SOL uses CMC/Bitunix reference
COINMARKETCAPHEALTHY
Last checked: —
Last successful data: —
Next check/retry: —
Countdown—
Latency: 0.0 ms
Reason: keyless aggregate cross-check/fallback (~60s cache)
TWELVEDATAHEALTHY
Last checked: —
Last successful data: —
Next check/retry: —
Countdown—
Latency: 251.4 ms
Reason: all configured quotes available
MARKETPARTIAL · BTC/ETH/SOL LIVE
Last checked: —
Last successful data: —
Next check/retry: —
Countdown—
Latency: 0.0 ms
Reason: BTC/ETH/SOL live; traditional target feeds are separate and explicitly labeled.
ANALYST_FARCASTERHEALTHY
Last checked: —
Last successful data: —
Next check/retry: —
Countdown—
Latency: 0.0 ms
Reason: configured / latest poll healthy
ANALYST_XBLOCKED · CREDIT
Last checked: —
Last successful data: —
Next check/retry: —
Countdown—
Latency: 0.0 ms
Reason: X_USER_LOOKUP_CREDITS_DEPLETED_HTTP_402
BLS_CALENDARACCESS BLOCKED
Last checked: —
Last successful data: —
Next check/retry: —
Countdown—
Latency: 0.0 ms
Reason: 403 Client Error: Forbidden for url: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/bls.ics
BITUNIX_WS_TRADESHEALTHY
Last checked: —
Last successful data: —
Next check/retry: —
Countdown—
Latency: 0.0 ms
Reason: archived batch 6 trades
BYBIT_OIHEALTHY
Last checked: —
Last successful data: —
Next check/retry: —
Countdown—
Latency: 182.9 ms
Reason: SOL OI public endpoint OK
OKX_OIHEALTHY
Last checked: —
Last successful data: —
Next check/retry: —
Countdown—
Latency: 265.1 ms
Reason: SOL OI public endpoint OK
SHADOW MODE
Analyst opinions are archived and evaluated independently. They have zero weight in the final Result until minimum sample and time gates are satisfied.FA
X ReaderREADYCost-guarded per-analyst polling
Farcaster ReaderREADYNeynar / Farcaster read connector
Market EvaluationACTIVEActual accuracy needs trusted prices

Analyst Pool FA

Strict rules reject ambiguous or two-sided statements.
0xFahim — Farcaster
ACTIVE_CANDIDATE · SHADOW
Shadow
BTCNQ
CRYPTO_RELATIVE_VALUEBTC_NASDAQ
Views10
Scorable0
Rejected/Pending10
Accuracy—
Reject reasons: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING ×7NO_CLEAR_DIRECTION ×3
Latest real ingested content
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
Good night 😴😴
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
BTC · NEUTRAL NON_DIRECTIONAL FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon 8H · Conviction —
16 years ago today, someone spent 10,000 $BTC on two pizzas. Today, it stands as one of the most iconic moments in crypto history, a reminder that every major movement starts small before the world understands it. Happy Bitcoin Pizza Day 🍕
Rejected/Pending reason: NO_CLEAR_DIRECTION
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
Good morning 🌞🌞
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
Good morning 🌞🌄🌞🌄
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
The environment doesn't look very nice.
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
Successfully wasted 5 years in crypto.
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
ETH · NEUTRAL NON_DIRECTIONAL FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
Which @base.base.eth AI agents are the next 100x? 🚀
Rejected/Pending reason: NO_CLEAR_DIRECTION
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
Good
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
Adam Mancini
ACTIVE_CANDIDATE · SHADOW
Shadow
ESNQ
ES_FUTURESLEVELSPRICE_PATHINTRADAY
Views0
Scorable0
Rejected/Pending0
Accuracy—
Benjamin Cowen
ACTIVE_CANDIDATE · SHADOW
Shadow
BTC
CYCLEMACRORELATIVE_VALUERISK
Views0
Scorable0
Rejected/Pending0
Accuracy—
Corbin — Farcaster
ACTIVE_CANDIDATE · SHADOW
Shadow
BTCETH
CRYPTO_MACROMARKET_COMMENTARY
Views10
Scorable0
Rejected/Pending10
Accuracy—
Reject reasons: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING ×9NO_CLEAR_DIRECTION ×1
Latest real ingested content
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
cool that Farcaster is still running What’s been going on lately?
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
What’s going on with crypto startups? 1) Tokens are no longer seen as quick exit liquidity. Everything is memecoin. 2) VC funds pull back writing checks. L1 and web3 dev infra are no longer investable. Smaller TAM while AI captures everyone’s imagination. 3) No follow on rounds from VCs. No token buyers in a bear market. Shutdown or pivot to stablecoins, RWAs/DeFi or AI. The best with revenue will be fine. But th
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
ETH · NEUTRAL NON_DIRECTIONAL FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
I bountied out a DeFi vault on Veda and @0xdoni nailed it and got $50. 🙌 The other submission was also really good and from an AI Agent. 🤖 RIP @gigbot.eth but software engineering tasks are likely a good fit for bounties now that the dev work and verification can be done via Agents. 🤣
Rejected/Pending reason: NO_CLEAR_DIRECTION
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
$50 bounty for building a DeFi Vault * Vibecoding encouraged * Use a Veda vault below * Deposit USDe and get your share of the vault’s USDe in return * Manager is a list of multiple addresses that can do anything with the assets. No restrictions. * Manager addresses are added/removed based on an external authority address * Implement a 3 day withdraw queue Respond with GitHub link and explanation of your solution.
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
Artists no longer paint. Writers no longer write. Devs no longer write code. Filmmakers no longer film. Skill is commoditized, democratized. Ideas, intent, and consistency matter more than ever.
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
Congrats to the Rainbow team for getting their token live! They’ve let the way on wallet UX over the years. Love seeing the good guys win, no matter the broader market.
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
After a few cycles, you learn to keep a cool head during the extreme market highs and lows. Clarity at these times can be super beneficial.
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
the biggest thing happening in crypto right now is TradFi and DeFi converging… stablecoins, RWAs, lending, asset management, etc https://x.com/nathanmccauley/status/2019410861899837500?s=46&t=NFK1uYN8d9GWb2GGveucpA
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
Faircaster — AI Research Source
AI_RESEARCH_SOURCE · SHADOW
Shadow
BTCETH
CRYPTO_RESEARCHCONVICTION_NOTES
Views10
Scorable0
Rejected/Pending10
Accuracy—
Reject reasons: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING ×7NO_CLEAR_DIRECTION ×3
Latest real ingested content
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
Signal update: @quotient Type: TGE long time since the first signal. they kept building through it, but the token is finally coming. prediction markets have been the product for a while now. Q produces a forecast and sets its fair price independently of the market, then gets scored against the outcome when the market resolves. Q Signals live, surfacing markets where evidence says price should move toward that fair
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
fair scouts earned 100m $FAIR season 0.5, fair's first scouting season, has ended scouts spent ~a month looking for alpha and we're grateful for their work 250 submissions, 169 accepted 96 became signals 185 tokens in fair's knowledge base season 1 starts soon bigger pool, permissionless access
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
What Changes in Fair v2 #1 New sourcing pipelines V1: X and Farcaster. the agent watching social signals 24/7 V2 keeps those and adds two more: Scout Pipeline Humans have taste, conviction, narrative instinct The parts of sourcing models can't replicate yet Season 0.5 starts next week Onchain Pipeline Flags volume anomalies and wallet movement In dev testing. Will be also available as a tool for General Partners
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
WE ARE HIRING SCOUTS! AI already took your job we offer you another path we invite you, a human, to join the Fair fund as scout Testing of the scout sourcing pipeline proved the hypothesis: 4 scouts found 5 signals, 4 trades, and 50+ entries into our knowledge base best performers brought paper returns up to 2000% Now we expand: recruiting up to 20 hand-picked scouts for season 0.5: onboarded directly or via the f
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
Fair v2 starts today. v1 was the hypothesis: can an AI agent actually run a VC fund? we've answered it. $59k in. fund peaked at $126k. six months. 100%+ unPNL. huge unrealized wins on $qr, $noice, $opsys and more. 80+ signals, research, memos, market reads. even Brian noticed us. but what matters most: a community of real people who actually believe in this hypothesis. v1 proved discovery. now it's time to
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
$SNAP Token Overview hypersnap — a fork of the farcaster network. $snap is the protocol reward for node runners, miniapp/client devs, and users that grow the network. retro pool 200M, released per 5-day epoch, phase 1 33.33M, total supply 2B. three stages: retro distribution, protocol upgrade, on-protocol governance. we built a dashboard to track token metrics: issuance curve, claims, velocity, retention, dex sel
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
ETH · NEUTRAL NON_DIRECTIONAL FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon 24H · Conviction —
Signal detected: $CHARMS Type: Token Launch identified team members: @gon0x.eth, Juan Chacón, Ignacio Justicia it took time but $CHARMS is finally coming this week. iterations, timings, ecosystem support — time has come. @charmsai is building the AI character economy on Base. users create and own AI characters: each one is a tradeable asset with a live token. creators earn 0.8% of every trade in USDC, paid every
Rejected/Pending reason: NO_CLEAR_DIRECTION
Open source
ETH · NEUTRAL NON_DIRECTIONAL FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon 8H · Conviction —
Signal detected: @base.base.eth Coinbase posted a senior PM role for a dedicated Base privacy platform (Mar 30). mandate: make privacy a "default primitive" at the protocol layer. not a feature. not opt-in. senior PM hire means direction is locked and they're staffing execution. a full product team being built around this. reason: privacy as a Base default changes what's buildable onchain. private DeFi, payroll,
Rejected/Pending reason: NO_CLEAR_DIRECTION
Open source
Gareth Soloway
ACTIVE_CANDIDATE · SHADOW
Shadow
BTCGOLDNQESYM
TECHNICALLEVELSINSTITUTIONAL_ANALYSIS
Views0
Scorable0
Rejected/Pending0
Accuracy—
Material Indicators / Keith Alan
ACTIVE_CANDIDATE · SHADOW
Shadow
BTC
ORDER_BOOKCVDLIQUIDITYMARKET_STRUCTURE
Views0
Scorable0
Rejected/Pending0
Accuracy—
Patrick Karim / Badcharts
WATCH_CANDIDATE · SHADOW
Shadow
GOLD
WEIGHT_OF_EVIDENCECHART_STRUCTURERISK_MANAGEMENT
Views0
Scorable0
Rejected/Pending0
Accuracy—
Samantha LaDuc
ACTIVE_CANDIDATE · SHADOW
Shadow
GOLDNQESYM
CROSS_ASSETMACRO_TO_MICROSWINGTREND
Views0
Scorable0
Rejected/Pending0
Accuracy—
Septa7763 — Farcaster
TRIAL_CANDIDATE · SHADOW
Shadow
BTC
BTC_LEVELSTECHNICAL_COMMENTARY
Views12
Scorable0
Rejected/Pending12
Accuracy—
Reject reasons: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING ×7NO_CLEAR_DIRECTION ×3TWO_SIDED_OR_CONDITIONAL_CALL ×1NO_MEASURABLE_HORIZON_OR_COMPLETE_SETUP ×1
Latest real ingested content
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
I am minting my daily Pixel Noun. See /pixelnouns for details.
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
ETH · NEUTRAL NON_DIRECTIONAL FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
🎰 TOTALLY FAKE JACKPOT ALERT! 🚨 I minted 1 bogus edition of @pramadan.eth and won 41,400,000 fake $BETR on @betrmint’s new infinite rounds, including a 100x Jackpot that's about to retire my imaginary grandchildren! Try your fake luck now!
Rejected/Pending reason: NO_CLEAR_DIRECTION
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
Do you want to feel @calmer too? https://calmer.onfc.xyz?sid=214d7955-001c-4740-bc09-fbce527ade26
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
Fact..
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
BTC · NEUTRAL CONDITIONAL_PENDING FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon 168H · Conviction —
📉 Prediction Markets Say Bitcoin Won’t Hit $100K in 2025 — Odds Drop to 30% BTC is struggling to reclaim momentum after the Fed rate cut, and prediction markets now price in only a 29–34% chance that Bitcoin touches $100,000 before Jan. 1. Key reasons sentiment flipped: - Macro uncertainty and the post-FOMC fade continue to weigh on risk assets. - Treasury buyers are slowing down — institutional appetite looks exh
Reasoning: Both bullish and bearish paths are present.
Rejected/Pending reason: TWO_SIDED_OR_CONDITIONAL_CALL
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
🌅 I just sent a GM on Base! Join me and say GM: https://zkcodex.com/onchain/gm @zkcodex #GM #Base
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
🌅 I just sent a GM on Base! Join me and say GM: https://zkcodex.com/onchain/gm @zkcodex #GM #Base
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
— · NEUTRAL NON_SCORABLE FARCASTER
Published — · Seen — · Horizon — · Conviction —
My Neynar Score is 0.63. Check your score:
Rejected/Pending reason: ASSET_AMBIGUOUS_OR_MISSING
Open source
Trader Dale
WATCH_CANDIDATE · SHADOW
Shadow
GOLDNQES
VOLUME_PROFILEORDER_FLOWVWAPPRICE_ACTION
Views0
Scorable0
Rejected/Pending0
Accuracy—

Source Connections

AnalystPlatformHandleEnabledLast AttemptLast SuccessStatus
Material Indicators / Keith AlanXMI_AlgosTrue——DEGRADED · CREDITS DEPLETED
Material Indicators / Keith AlanXKAProductionsTrue——DEGRADED · CREDITS DEPLETED
Benjamin CowenXbenjamincowenTrue——DEGRADED · CREDITS DEPLETED
Gareth SolowayXGarethSolowayTrue——DEGRADED · CREDITS DEPLETED
Samantha LaDucXSamanthaLaDucTrue——DEGRADED · CREDITS DEPLETED
Adam ManciniXAdamMancini4True——DEGRADED · CREDITS DEPLETED
Trader DaleXtrader_daleFalse——READY / NOT POLLED YET
Patrick Karim / BadchartsXbadcharts1False——READY / NOT POLLED YET
Corbin — FarcasterFARCASTERcorbin.ethTrue——READY
Faircaster — AI Research SourceFARCASTERfaircasterTrue——READY
0xFahim — FarcasterFARCASTER0xfahim.ethTrue——READY
Septa7763 — FarcasterFARCASTERsepta7763True——READY

Manual Shadow Import

Fallback while social API credentials are not connected. Manual imports are archived but do not improve live scores retrospectively.
Analyst
Platform
Published time
Source URL
Original text

Self-Learning Profiles FA

Recommendation ≠ application. Auto-tune is bounded, guardrailed and disabled by default; strategy rewrite is forbidden.
LayerEntityAssetHorizonNAccuracyScoreRecommended WeightCurrent / AppliedState
FUNDAMENTAL_FACTORliquidityBTCN/A4584.4%76.331.01.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTAL_FACTORstressBTCN/A4584.4%76.331.01.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTAL_FACTORcrypto_networkBTCN/A4584.4%76.331.01.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTAL_FACTORliquidityETHN/A4571.1%61.841.01.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTAL_FACTORstressETHN/A4571.1%61.841.01.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTALINTERNALETH12H1553.3%42.940.10.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTALINTERNALETH4H1546.7%36.70.10.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTALINTERNALBTC12H1533.3%24.730.10.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTAL_FACTORcrypto_networkETHN/A4528.9%21.11.01.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTAL_FACTORgrowthETHN/A4528.9%21.11.01.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTAL_FACTORreal_yieldETHN/A3917.9%11.431.01.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTAL_FACTORfed_tightnessETHN/A3917.9%11.431.01.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTAL_FACTORgrowthBTCN/A4515.6%9.871.01.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTALINTERNALETH24H1513.3%8.360.10.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTALINTERNALBTC4H156.7%3.650.10.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTAL_FACTORreal_yieldBTCN/A392.6%0.771.01.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTAL_FACTORfed_tightnessBTCN/A392.6%0.771.01.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
FUNDAMENTALINTERNALBTC24H150.0%0.00.10.0REJECTED_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
BTC/ETH/SOL TECHNICAL — SHADOW / PAPER
Real Bitunix OHLCV is used for deterministic independent Price Action, SMC, ICT and Advanced RTM engines with 4H Bias → 1H Setup → 15m Trigger. Only closed candles are eligible. Closed candles only. Small Bitunix OHLC envelope defects are deterministically normalized using Bitunix's own open/close with an audit trail; larger defects attempt same-exchange sub-candle reconstruction; unrecoverable corruption blocks Technical.

BTC

NEUTRAL
Score 7.793 · Confidence 30.7 · MTF · SHADOW
PA 6.0 · SMC -21.0 · ICT -24.0 · RTM -48.64
Data UNKNOWN · normalized 0 · repaired 0 · open excluded 0

ETH

NEUTRAL
Score 4.914 · Confidence 30.0 · MTF · SHADOW
PA -12.0 · SMC 69.0 · ICT 42.0 · RTM -3.936
Data UNKNOWN · normalized 0 · repaired 0 · open excluded 0

SOL

BEARISH
Score -18.201 · Confidence 48.3 · MTF · SHADOW
PA -12.0 · SMC -21.0 · ICT -34.0 · RTM -76.19200000000001
Data UNKNOWN · normalized 0 · repaired 0 · open excluded 0

Independent Strategy Reports

هر روش به‌صورت مستقل در 4H / 1H / 15m ارزیابی می‌شود و فقط در صورت هم‌جهتی معتبر، Candidate Position می‌سازد.

BTC — 4H Bias / 1H Setup / 15m Trigger

PRICE_ACTION

BULLISH
Score 13.6 · Confidence 37.1
4H BULLISH · 1H BEARISH · 15m NEUTRAL
Alignment 10.0 · WAIT / CONFLICT
Setup: REVERSAL_OR_TRANSITION
Status: WAIT
Entry: 77023.7 · SL: None
TP1/TP2: None / None · R:R: None / None

SMC

NEUTRAL
Score 7.4 · Confidence 38.1
4H BULLISH · 1H BEARISH · 15m BEARISH
Alignment -10.0 · WAIT / CONFLICT
Setup: STRUCTURE_CONTINUATION
Status: WAIT
Entry: 77023.7 · SL: 77029.6
TP1/TP2: 76981.2 / 76976.48 · R:R: 7.203 / 8.003

ICT

BULLISH
Score 14.8 · Confidence 40.0
4H BULLISH · 1H BEARISH · 15m BEARISH
Alignment -10.0 · WAIT / CONFLICT
Setup: WAIT_FOR_ICT_ENTRY_MODEL
Status: WAIT
Entry: 77023.7 · SL: None
TP1/TP2: None / None · R:R: None / None

RTM

NEUTRAL
Score -4.626 · Confidence 37.4
4H BULLISH · 1H BEARISH · 15m BEARISH
Alignment -10.0 · WAIT / CONFLICT
Setup: RTM_QUASIMODO
Status: WAIT
Entry: 77023.7 · SL: 77029.6
TP1/TP2: 76981.2 / 76976.48 · R:R: 7.203 / 8.003
Advanced RTM: FTR 0 · Flag Limit 0 · BSZ 1 · MPL 1 · Quasimodo 6 · Diamond 0

ETH — 4H Bias / 1H Setup / 15m Trigger

PRICE_ACTION

BULLISH
Score 46.1 · Confidence 53.0
4H BULLISH · 1H BULLISH · 15m BEARISH
Alignment 60.0 · WAIT / CONFLICT
Setup: REVERSAL_OR_TRANSITION
Status: WAIT
Entry: 2482.25 · SL: 2484.97
TP1/TP2: 2477.898 / 2475.45 · R:R: 1.6 / 2.5

SMC

NEUTRAL
Score -3.0 · Confidence 42.2
4H BEARISH · 1H BEARISH · 15m BULLISH
Alignment -60.0 · WAIT / CONFLICT
Setup: LIQUIDITY_REVERSAL
Status: WAIT
Entry: 2482.25 · SL: 2481.58
TP1/TP2: 2483.47 / 2484.006 · R:R: 1.821 / 2.621

ICT

NEUTRAL
Score -6.0 · Confidence 35.2
4H NEUTRAL · 1H BEARISH · 15m BULLISH
Alignment -15.0 · WAIT / CONFLICT
Setup: ICT_SETUP_WAIT_PRIMARY_TIME_WINDOW
Status: WAIT
Entry: 2482.25 · SL: None
TP1/TP2: None / None · R:R: None / None

RTM

BEARISH
Score -17.444 · Confidence 37.1
4H NEUTRAL · 1H BEARISH · 15m NEUTRAL
Alignment -35.0 · WAIT / CONFLICT
Setup: RTM_FTR_RETURN
Status: WAIT
Entry: 2482.25 · SL: None
TP1/TP2: None / None · R:R: None / None
Advanced RTM: FTR 2 · Flag Limit 0 · BSZ 5 · MPL 5 · Quasimodo 8 · Diamond 1

SOL — 4H Bias / 1H Setup / 15m Trigger

PRICE_ACTION

BEARISH
Score -15.8 · Confidence 40.2
4H BULLISH · 1H BEARISH · 15m BEARISH
Alignment -10.0 · WAIT / CONFLICT
Setup: TREND_CONTINUATION
Status: WAIT
Entry: 100.91 · SL: 100.97
TP1/TP2: 100.79 / 100.742 · R:R: 2.0 / 2.8

SMC

BEARISH
Score -27.3 · Confidence 54.3
4H BEARISH · 1H BEARISH · 15m BEARISH
Alignment -100.0 · FULLY ALIGNED
Setup: STRUCTURE_CONTINUATION
Status: VALID
Entry: 100.91 · SL: 100.97
TP1/TP2: 100.79 / 100.742 · R:R: 2.0 / 2.8

ICT

BEARISH
Score -26.6 · Confidence 54.1
4H BEARISH · 1H BEARISH · 15m BEARISH
Alignment -100.0 · FULLY ALIGNED
Setup: ICT_SETUP_WAIT_PRIMARY_TIME_WINDOW
Status: WAIT
Entry: 100.91 · SL: None
TP1/TP2: None / None · R:R: None / None

RTM

NEUTRAL
Score -3.102 · Confidence 34.5
4H BULLISH · 1H NEUTRAL · 15m BEARISH
Alignment 25.0 · WAIT / CONFLICT
Setup: RTM_FTR_RETURN
Status: WAIT
Entry: 100.91 · SL: 100.97
TP1/TP2: 100.79 / 100.742 · R:R: 2.0 / 2.8
Advanced RTM: FTR 3 · Flag Limit 0 · BSZ 6 · MPL 6 · Quasimodo 3 · Diamond 1
Design rule: closed candles and confirmed swings only, BOS once per broken swing, no retroactive event injection. Advanced RTM is active with deterministic, timestamp-safe operational rules for FTR, Flag Limit, BSZ, MPL, Quasimodo and Diamond; all engines remain Paper/Shadow and non-repainting.
BTC/ETH/SOL VOLUME & ORDER FLOW — SHADOW / PAPER
Bitunix public trades/depth/funding + Bybit OI primary + OKX OI cross-check. OI is explicitly exchange-specific and is never treated as total-market OI.

BTC

BULLISH
Score 36.538 · Trades 11420 · Depth 89
Delta 0.4303 · CVD -10.336800000000004 · OFI 5.3995999999999995
True CVD: True · True OFI: True
CVD BULLISH_CVD_DIVERGENCE · Absorption 3 · Bid walls 3 / Ask walls 2
Price/OI: PRICE_UP_OI_UP_NEW_LONG_PARTICIPATION
OI cross-check: CONFIRMED_DIRECTION · Bybit Δ 3.0038% · OKX Δ 3.8952%

ETH

NEUTRAL
Score -5.881 · Trades 8118 · Depth 89
Delta -7.309000000000001 · CVD 709.255 · OFI -25.593000000000004
True CVD: True · True OFI: True
CVD BEARISH_CVD_DIVERGENCE · Absorption 3 · Bid walls 1 / Ask walls 1
Price/OI: PRICE_UP_OI_UP_NEW_LONG_PARTICIPATION
OI cross-check: CONFIRMED_DIRECTION · Bybit Δ 0.9252% · OKX Δ 4.3535%

SOL

BULLISH
Score 32.809 · Trades 4620 · Depth 89
Delta -4.019999999999999 · CVD 3750.730000000002 · OFI 6508.880000000001
True CVD: True · True OFI: True
CVD BULLISH_CVD_DIVERGENCE · Absorption 1 · Bid walls 3 / Ask walls 3
Price/OI: PRICE_UP_OI_DOWN_SHORT_COVERING
OI cross-check: DIVERGENT_DIRECTION · Bybit Δ -1.0945% · OKX Δ 0.8726%
DEEP ANALYSIS · PAPER/SHADOW
4H Bias → 1H Setup → 15m Trigger. Price Action, SMC, ICT and Advanced RTM are evaluated independently; risk gates may still return NO_TRADE.

Fundamental

ACTIVE

Analysts

AUXILIARY SHADOW

Technical

DEEP MTF

Volume / OFI

DEEP FLOW

AI Synthesis

PAPER GATED

Deep Result

Direction + signed strength (-100…+100) + confidence + فارسی Regime explanation + tradeability.
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Crypto Capital Rotation

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Intermarket Macro

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Human Trader View FA

Asset
Direction
Horizon (hours)
Conviction 0-100
Notes

Recent Human Views

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PAPER / SHADOW POSITION DESK · AUTOMATIC MONITORING
A gated position attempt runs after each completed 4H analysis and triggered re-analysis; open paper positions are refreshed continuously from the real Bitunix trade tape. Only one open position per asset is allowed. No broker order is sent. TP1 scales out 50% and moves the remaining stop to breakeven; every event is archived for audit and weekly evaluation.

Position Engine

Fundamental + Analysts + Technical + Volume/Order Flow → Synthesis → Position. Fundamental + Technical + Order Flow are required core gates. Analysts are auxiliary until coverage is sufficient. A valid setup blocked only by Event Risk may be tracked as SHADOW_COUNTERFACTUAL for learning, never as an approved/live trade.

Open / Recent Positions

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Weekly Performance

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APPROVAL-ONLY PUBLISHING
No post is sent to X or Farcaster without your explicit approval. Draft preparation and publishing are separate actions.
X Write ConnectorWAITING_USER_OAUTHRequires user-context OAuth
Farcaster Write ConnectorWAITING_NEYNAR_SIGNERRequires Neynar API key + approved signer
Approval GateREQUIREDNever auto-publish

Prepare a Research Draft

Until the Result layer is live, drafts are explicitly labeled Fundamental-layer research rather than final positions.

Draft Queue

IDCreatedAssetPlatformStatusTextAction
OFFICIAL FORECAST HORIZON = 4H
12H/24H historical rows remain Legacy/Research only. Prediction Accuracy and Path/Tradeability are scored separately: the same MFE/MAE values can produce a different tradeability result when their order is different. Only events inside the official 4H path window count.

4H Forecast Evaluation & Learning

Original forecast definition is immutable. Checkpoints record the first real crossing time; final evaluation appends Actual, Prediction Accuracy, ordered path, MFE/MAE timing, deviation diagnosis and bounded learning guidance.
IssuedAssetForecastPrediction AccuracyPath / TradeabilityForecast LevelsStatusDeviation / Learning
No new official 4H lifecycle exists yet. The next valid analysis cycle will create it.

What the system learned today FA

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